Of all the teams in the NHL’s highly competitive Atlantic Division, the Tampa Bay Lightning stand out as a group that could slip out of the playoff picture if things don’t go right for them and go well for others.
This isn’t to suggest the Lightning can’t win enough games. But when you look at the roster changes Tampa has made – in concert with the moves and development of up-and-coming Atlantic teams we’ll focus on below – there’s a scenario in which the Lightning are bumped out of a playoff berth.
For starters, any team that loses two elite players, such as Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev, will take a step backward or sideways.
It’s true Lightning GM Julien BriseBois replaced Stamkos and Sergachev with left winger Jake Guentzel and veteran blueliner Ryan McDonagh, respectively, but time will tell if those are upgrades. From our perspective, Guentzel over Stamkos may be a win for the Lightning, but the 35-year-old McDonagh over the 26-year-old Sergachev definitely isn’t a win.
Also, the Lightning’s third and fourth forward lines are hardly intimidating. And a Bolts team that finished last season with the NHL’s 10th-worst defense – averaging 3.26 goals against per game – has not improved nearly enough to strike fear into the hearts of opponents.
Now, about those other Atlantic teams – the Ottawa Senators, first and foremost – that will give Tampa Bay a run for their money in the regular season. We’re not convinced teams other than the Senators will be playoff teams this season, but the cumulative effect of slightly better seasons from the Sens, Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres will cut into the Lightning’s record. The Senators now have their own Vezina Trophy winner in net and some additions on the wings. The Red Wings should continue to see growth from Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. And the Sabres are gearing up to bounce back from last season’s setback.
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If the Metropolitan Division bubble teams, such as the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals, also remain in the playoff battle, the Lightning could be challenged just to get the second wild-card spot. They made improvements to their rosters this off-season as well.
All things considered, the road ahead for Tampa looks to be rockier than it was last season. And remember, the Lightning were only four wins better than the Red Wings in 2023-24. One extended losing streak here or there, or the lack thereof for another playoff bubble squad, and the Lightning will be fighting for their playoff lives.
Don’t get us wrong – the Lightning’s core can still keep them competitive. If star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy steals a handful of games for them, and if Guentzel, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman continue to impress, Tampa Bay probably will play meaningful games through the end of the season. But it’s a slippery slope between a playoff berth in the fourth or fifth spot in the Atlantic and the sixth spot. An injury to a key component could illustrate the lack of depth in the Lightning’s lineup this year.
If the Bolts aren’t careful and fortunate as far as puck luck goes, they could find themselves on the outside of the playoffs looking in next spring. You can ride only so long on the fumes of a championship run, and it could very well be crossroads time for this iteration of the Lightning. The Atlantic is the toughest division in the NHL, and it only could take a few hiccups to push the Lightning out of the playoff picture.
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News Summary:
- Opinion: Why The Lightning Could Lose Playoff Spot To Senators, Sabres Or Red Wings
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