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The Edmonton Oilers face a big decision when extending defenseman Evan Bouchard’s contract at the end of the season.
They must decide whether to go long-term, bridge the deal or try one of those rare deferred salary extensions.
Currently earning $3.9 million per season, Bouchard is in line for a significant raise, with TSN analyst Frankie Corrado suggesting his next cap hit could exceed $10 million per season on a long-term deal. The question is whether the Oilers benefit from locking him in now or from punting the really big decision down the road.
Evan Bouchard reached another level in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.@EdmontonOilers | #NHLTopPlayers pic.twitter.com/R2BGN8KUJA
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) September 23, 2024
Bouchard is undoubtedly turning into an elite defenseman. But the Oilers already have some massive contracts, and as they negotiate with Bouchard, they’ll be trying to sign Connor McDavid to the richest contract in NHL history.
A Bridge Deal For Bouchard?
One option on the table is a bridge deal, which would allow Bouchard to cash in again when he reaches his late 20s. Such a deal would carry a more manageable cap hit for the Oilers, allowing them some roster flexibility while keeping Bouchard in the fold.
When the bridge deal ends, Edmonton will undoubtedly know what kind of defenseman Bouchard is, and his next deal could be the massive extension that comes when he’s around 29 or 30 years old. It would potentially position him for the payday that sets him up for life and comes when the NHL salary cap could rise above $100 million.
In this scenario, both sides have the luxury of a bit more time.
What About A Long-Term Deal Now?
The Oilers could push for a long-term deal now, locking Bouchard in for around $80 million over the next eight seasons. The biggest argument for this is his projected ceiling.
“It’s high. It’s really, really high,” Draisaitl said about Bouchard’s ceiling at the NHL and NHLPA Player Media Tour in Las Vegas two weeks ago. “Certainly, on the offensive side, I would put him in the top three for what he does on the blueline. He’s pretty electric. And he’s still young.
“He’s going to get better defensively, he’s going to get better at making decisions. There’s a lot of potential there. He’s one of the smartest hockey players I’ve played with.”
McDavid echoed those comments.
“I think Bouch’s ceiling is as high as he wants to make it,” he said at the tour.
“He’s been better than even I imagined and he seems to keep getting better and better.”
Do the Oilers want to risk not locking in Bouchard? Elliotte Friedman always says, if you have star players, lock them in as early as you can for as long as you can because the price never goes down.
The idea that Bouchard could turn down that kind of money on a championship-contending team might be difficult, especially given the uncertainties of injuries or a decline in production. Bouchard hasn’t made his big money yet. He’d have 80-million reasons to say yes and fewer reasons to hold out for more.
A long-term deal would provide cost certainty and prevent Bouchard from testing unrestricted free agency when his value could be even higher.
It would also ensure the Oilers avoid arbitration, which, as we saw last summer and the current fallout with the Boston Bruins and goaltender Jeremy Swayman, can get ugly.
Related: Oilers’ McDavid And Draisaitl Talk Balancing Act Between Raising NHL Salaries And Team Success
The Good News For The Oilers Regarding Bouchard Talks
As much as the Oilers might worry about an offer sheet, considering what happened with the St. Louis Blues, it’s not a significant risk for Bouchard. The Oilers are prepared to pay him, and any team that wants to try to scoop him up would have to offer well more than $11 million per season. Not only would few teams have that kind of cap space, but to get the draft capital to make that offer would be challenging.
Bouchard must also be willing to sign the offer sheet. Why would he do so if the Oilers are open to giving him $10 million per season?
Other than determining the type of contract, this will be a straightforward deal between Bouchard and the Oilers.
The Bad News For The Oilers Regarding Bouchard Talks
One thing that likely won’t be on the table is a deferred salary extension. Bouchard hasn’t made his big money yet, and it’s doubtful he would agree to delay a major payday in this critical stage of his career. The kind of money deferred isn’t likely a difference-maker.
If the Oilers are looking seriously at a bridge deal – one that could take him to the age of 29 or 30 – the team potentially has an even more challenging decision ahead.
The Oilers must consider whether a long-term deal at that age is wise. The cap could far surpass $100 million, and top defensemen might earn more than $10 million per season. A deal that takes Bouchard into his mid-30s carries significant risk.
It’s similar to asking whether the Oilers should offer Mattias Ekholm, currently 34, a long-term extension at the end of this season. Despite Ekholm’s strong play, most fans would argue against a lengthy deal given his age. Few teams want to commit to a player at huge money into their late 30s.
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News Summary:
- Oilers Face Key Decision: Long-Term Deal Or Bridge Contract For Evan Bouchard?
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