Croatia vs Italy sees two European powers go head-to-head as Group B comes to an end.
Croatia vs Italy odds
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Croatia vs Italy predictions
Croatia vs Italy looks like being the standout fixture on matchday three at this year’s European Championship.
There is still an outside chance that Albania can finish second in Group B. But to do so they would need to beat Spain – and that looks improbable.
In all likelihood, then, this match is essentially a play-off to determine whether Croatia or Italy finish as runners-up to Spain, who are already guaranteed top spot in the so-called group of death.
If Italy win or draw, they will end the group stage in second. If Croatia win, that spot will go to them.
There is still a chance that both teams will ultimately advance. Victories for Spain and Croatia on Monday would see the former finish first and the latter finish second.
Italy would then be stuck in third on three points, which could be sufficient to go through as one of the best third-place finishers. Needless to say, though, Luciano Spaletti will not want to leave it to chance.
Italy’s 2-1 victory over Albania on matchday is what gives them the edge. But the Azzurri were well beaten by Spain last time out. La Roja were much more dominant than the 1-0 scoreline suggests.
Croatia were previously defeated 3-0 by Spain, but they certainly created more chances against them than Italy did.
Yet Zlatko Dalic’s men could only draw 2-2 with Albania in their second outing in Germany. Croatia fell behind in a frustrating first half, before turning the game on its head with two goals after the break. But they could not hold out and allowed Albania to score an equaliser in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
For Croatia, then, this is win or bust. But Italy’s loss to Spain on Thursday means Luka Modric and co. do at least have their fate in their own hands with one match to play.
So do Italy, for that matter. Indeed, that is what makes Monday’s contest at the Red Bull Arena so intriguing.
Croatia vs Italy betting tips
Croatia and Italy will butt heads as Group B gets set to conclude with two games on Monday.
Croatia to win – 11/5 (bet365)
Croatia must have been kicking themselves after the concession of that late Albania leveller last time out. But now that the dust has settled, they will believe they can still secure a spot in the round of 16.
This is a steely group of players, after all. Italy may be the reigning European champions, but this is a very different side to the one that went all the way three years ago.
Conversely, this Croatia generation has defied the odds many times before. World Cup finalists in 2018, they finished third in Qatar 18 months ago and were recently Nations League runners-up too.
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Croatia are a little unfortunate to have just one point to their name so far. There are defensive issues to sort out, but they have had little trouble fashioning opportunities of their own.
Croatia could also benefit from the single-mindedness that comes from the fact they simply have to win on Monday. Italy, on the other hand, risk being caught in two minds.
⚽ Back Croatia to beat Italy at 11/5 with bet365 ⚽
Both teams to score – 4/6 (Betfred)
Italy were barely able to lay a glove on Spain, a development which would have concerned Spalletti.
The former Napoli head coach has long been associated with attacking football, but his team managed just one shot on target in their second game in Germany. Even that effort barely troubled Spain goalkeeper Unai Simon.
Italy should have more joy against a Croatia side that looked far from secure against both Spain and Albania.
The nature of this game also means that neither team can be happy with the scoreline at the same time.
Either Croatia or Italy will need a goal at every single point of this contest. That in turn should produce an entertaining encounter – and no clean sheets
⚽ Go for both teams to score at 4/6 with Betfred ⚽
Ante Budimir to score any time – 3/1 (Sky Bet)
One of Dalic’s biggest selection dilemmas is whether he should go for Ante Budimir or Bruno Petkovic up front.
Budimir started against Spain, before Petkovic was given the nod against Albania. In that second match, Budimir replaced his fellow striker and went on to have a big impact, setting up both goals to give Croatia the lead.
That should be enough for Budimir to be named in the XI ahead of Petkovic on Monday evening.
His scoring record for Croatia leaves a lot to be desired – just three goals in 23 senior caps – but the 32-year-old is coming off the back of the most prolific club campaign of his career to date, with Budimir making the net bulge 18 times for Osasuna in 2023/24.
At the price he is listed at, this wager is well worth a punt.
⚽ Tip Ante Budimir to score any time at 3/1 with Sky Bet ⚽
📺 How to watch Croatia vs Italy
- Location: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany.
- Date and time: Monday 24th June, 8pm.
- How to watch: BBC One.
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About the author
Greg Lea
Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.
Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball
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