Italy will begin the defence of their European Championship crown against Albania on Saturday night.
Italy vs Albania odds
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Italy vs Albania predictions
Italy are in an unusual position heading into the European Championship. They are the reigning champions having lifted the trophy three years ago, yet hardly anyone expects them to retain the crown this time around.
Their record since emerging victorious at Euro 2020 (held 12 months later than planned due to the pandemic) leaves a lot to be desired.
First, Italy failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, missing out on the global jamboree for the second time in a row. The four-time world champions, incidentally, have not won a knockout game at that tournament since 2006.
They were also unconvincing in Euro 2024 qualification. Had they lost to Ukraine on the final matchday, Italy would have been condemned to the play-offs. The game finished 0-0, but the Ukrainians had a penalty appeal wrongly turned down in second-half stoppage time.
The team is hardly recognisable from three years ago. Eleven of the 17 players who appeared in the Euro 2020 final are not part of the travelling party for Germany. That group includes Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini who have retired, plus the unselected Marco Verratti, Ciro Immobile and Domenico Berardi.
There has been a change in the dugout too, with Luciano Spalletti installed as Roberto Mancini’s replacement after the latter quit to take charge of Saudi Arabia. Spalletti is an astute coach who led Napoli to Serie A glory in style in 2022/23, but he has only had 10 months in the job.
The draw has complicated their task further. Italy belong to this tournament’s group of death, alongside Spain, Croatia and Saturday’s opponents Albania.
The fact that three teams from Group B could advance to the knockout phase means the Azzurri should at least avoid an early elimination, but finishing in the top two is far from a given.
With tougher matches against Spain and Croatia to come, it is essential that Italy get off to a winning start this weekend.
Italy vs Albania betting tips
Italy and Albania will get their Euro 2024 campaigns under way in a Saturday night clash.
Albania +2 handicap – 4/6 (bet365)
Albania were one of the surprise packages of the qualification process. Granted, a group containing the Czech Republic, Poland, Moldova and the Faroe Islands was not as taxing as it might have been, but Sylvinho’s side nevertheless outperformed expectations by finishing top.
Their strength was at the back. Only France (three) and Portugal (two) conceded fewer goals than Albania (four). The table-toppers kept a clean sheet in half of their eight qualifiers.
In only two of their last 25 fixtures have Albania been beaten by two clear goals. One of those defeats was a 3-1 Italy victory in November 2022, but Albania have improved since then.
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There are question marks over the Azzurri’s capacity to break down teams who sit deep and pack men behind the ball.
That is precisely what Albania will do here. This is a team that is not overly concerned with keeping possession. Their primary focus will be frustrating Italy in the final third.
Spaletti’s side should ultimately find a way to come out on top, but they will not have everything their own way. A win by a one-goal margin is a sensible selection.
⚽ Back Albania with a +2 handicap at 4/6 with bet365 ⚽
Draw at half-time – 5/1 (Betfred)
Albanian hearts must have sunk when the group stage draw was made. But the fact that one win could be enough to make it through to the last 16 means it would be a mistake to dismiss their chances out of hand.
Whether they can score enough goals to beat any of Italy, Croatia or Spain remains to be seen, but each of Albania’s opponents will have to work hard to breach their backline.
Given this is their first game of the tournament, Italy may take a while to find their rhythm going forward.
Moreover, their attack is far from the strongest in the competition. Federico Chiesa was poor for Juventus in 2023/24, while Davide Frattesi started just six league games for Inter. Both are set to start this weekend.
Albania have the defensive discipline and nous to go in level at the break.
⚽ Select a draw at half-time at 5/1 with Betfred ⚽
Gianluca Scamacca to score any time – 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Spaletti has two main options at centre-forward this summer.
The first is Mateo Retegui, born in Argentina and uncovered by Mancini in early 2023. He has scored four goals in eight appearances for the country of his grandparents.
Yet it looks like Gianluca Scamacca has won the race to start against Albania in Dortmund.
He was criticised by Spalletti in March, but his performance against Bosnia-Herzegovina in a warm-up friendly, together with a strong season with Atalanta, means he is likely to get the nod here.
Scamacca would therefore be a good choice in the anytime scorer market. He will probably be instructed to stay inside the penalty area as much as possible, with Albania unlikely to venture too high up the pitch.
⚽ Tip Gianluca Scamacca to score any time at 6/4 with Sky Bet ⚽
How to watch Italy vs Albania
- Location: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany.
- Date and time: Saturday 15th June, 8pm.
- How to watch: BBC One.
Read more about Euro 2024
About the author
Greg Lea
Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.
Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball
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