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Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.
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Tuesday April 16th horse racing tips
- NEWMARKET
1.20: Hallasan 5/4 (1.5pts)
2.20: Crown Estate 6/1 each-way (1pt) & Swinger with Broadway Act (1pt)
3.30: Boiling Point & Bold Style 1st/2nd & Starlore 3rd (Trifecta) (1.5pts)
Hallasan
With flat turf racing returning to Newmarket there’s a chance for William Buick and Charlie Appleby to get another haul of winners as they did last year.
If you were to bet £1 on every Buick ride at Newmarket in 2023 you’d be up £37.69 on SP odds as he racked up 26 wins from just 73 rides.
Similarly, Appleby had 22 winners from 79 runners at Newmarket alone in 2023 with a 28% strike-rate.
The two are also far clear in the last five years with a 31% strike-rate each and even more profit to a level £1 stake.
So it’s vital to take any runner they have here seriously, of which there’s a few this week.
Appleby sends out his first two-year-old of the season with Hallasan and has a great strike rate with such horses too.
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The colt is Pinatubo’s first progeny to be seen which could be a great sign of things to come if he gets off to a win, for Godolphin.
Hallasan is half brother to plenty of 5f sprinters including Al Raya, Grisons, So Many Questions and Mystify Me, all out of Fig Roll.
So all the stats are behind him to make this a great start.
Crown Estate & Swinger
Broadway Act, another for Buick and Appleby, has never quite lived up to that debut run when second to Macduff who has since gone on to be a 107-rated horse with decent placings in listed and group contests since that win.
Whereas Broadway Act had to make it three times lucky to get his first win and was denied as the favourite once again on his last run back here in October.
But so often with these horses they really start buckling down after they’re gelded.
Which he was just five days after his last run – and with four runs here over 7f he has vital experience many of these don’t have with a potentially low mark to exploit.
However, Crown Estate roared clear of Native King last time out on seasonal debut for the King.
Owned by John & Thady Gosden, this colt clearly progressed very nicely over the winter, coupled with a wind op and being gelded so should be a great chance for profit at 6’s each-way.
Boiling Point & Bold Style 1st/2nd & Starlore 3rd (Trifecta)
Putting a fair bit on the line to get this Trifecta right, but it seems this is the way to go with potential for progression from the Godolphin runner Bold Style, who could be yet another winner for the dominant Newmarket team.
Boiling Point’s form is exceptional with that Tattersall Stakes form working out very well.
Alyanaabi was just a short head in front when it mattered and then went on to place second behind City Of Troy in the Dewhurst, and as a result upped to an OR of 114.
Others in that field also confirmed that form for Boiling Point, but you can’t put all the stake on him as he’s only once got ahead so far and needs some caution on seasonal debut.
Bold Style could be even better with the manner in which he won last time out at Chelmsford and as said previously, you can’t discount the Godolphin runners from the Appleby yard.
Starlore has some great form on turf and may relish this season as a three-year-old for Sir Michael Stoute under Ryan Moore. But it’s hard to see him coming back with a win against the front two, though with Moore on board it’s always a possibility.
But the trifecta pays out well with the market looking to have this almost bang on.
Tom Lunn’s Racing Tips Profit + Loss
- October-Present: +147.19pts
- Total from July 2023: +220.56pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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News Summary:
- Tuesday horse racing tips from Tom Lunn at Newmarket
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