Suns vs. Mavericks odds, picks: NBA best bets, predictions

The Suns look to extend their winning streak to seven games when they visit the Mavericks on Friday night.

Phoenix is a three-point underdog despite sitting atop the Western Conference with a 7-1 mark. 

While a +3.4 Net Rating might suggest the Suns have been somewhat fortunate to amass such an impressive record, their success is primarily linked to improved performances in the fourth quarter.

Thus, if we dive deep into the numbers and compare them to last season, perhaps we’ll consider the Suns more deserving of this fast start. 

Suns vs. Mavericks odds

Phoenix Suns betting preview 

(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Phoenix formed its version of the Big Three when it landed Bradley Beal in the summer of 2023 to team up with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. 

While the Suns roster certainly looked promising on paper, injuries forced Beal to miss 35% or 29 of Phoenix’s games. Yet, the Suns still managed to win 49 games and finish sixth in the conference. 

However, the team had some glaring concerns, as it was a bit top-heavy and lacked depth on the bench. 

It was almost like the front office was simply trying to collect superstars while giving little thought to actually building out the roster.

Nonetheless, there’s no denying that the Suns had some legitimate star power to overcome Beal’s prolonged absences and still win as many games as they did.

During his exit interviews, Beal reflected on how his injuries impacted the team as a whole.

“In retrospect, we won 49 games,” Beal said. “That’s a lot of games. And I missed what, 30 games, almost? Roughly? Roughly 30 games. Like, that’s a lot of games. We’re a 50-win team.”  

“Not saying we’d have won every game if I’d have played, but we would be in a totally different position if I’m healthy through the whole year, if everybody’s healthy the whole year.”

This season already feels different compared to last year, when Beal missed the first two weeks. Therefore, perhaps we should take him at his word that this is an entirely different Suns team if they can stay healthy. 

Dallas Mavericks betting preview

The Mavericks didn’t find their stride last season until they improved their frontcourt by acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford before the trade deadline.

Washington did a tremendous job by helping to improve Dallas defensively, while also being able to provide spacing offensively by hitting shots on the perimeter.

With the Kentucky product currently sidelined with a sprained knee, the Mavericks are likely to miss his presence on the court.

Although the Mavericks have two of the most talented players in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, there’s always the thought that they’re somewhat playing in cruise control.

But sometimes, when your that gifted, it could look like you’re simply in cruise control when you’re playing the game of basketball.

Doncic is extremely confident and you almost get the sense that he’s willing to back himself no matter who the opponent is.

The Mavericks don’t strike me as a team that can show consistency at this early stage of the season. 

Doncic is the undisputed leader of the team, and his inability to get himself into better basketball shape points to something that’s a bit untrustworthy about this team.

Suns vs Mavericks pick

Phoenix’s net rating (+3.4) suggests it’s record should be closer to 5-3. 

However, I can’t overlook the gains they’ve made in the fourth quarter, where there +3.5 rating is roughly 15 points better than it was last season.

The Suns had one of the worst benches in the league, which meant their star players were often out of gas in the final 12 minutes of the game.

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Tyus Jones might have been their biggest offseason move because in taking over the point guard duties, the players are better able to have defined roles.

Jones allows Grayson Allen to move to the bench where he can add depth to the second unit.

This is a much different Suns team we saw from a season ago, and their improvement in the fourth quarter is a key factor that shouldn’t go overlooked.

Best Bet: Suns +3 (-108, BetRivers)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.