The NHL’s 2024-25 regular season is almost here, and the predictions and debates are going strong.
We started the analysis Thursday by focusing on the Atlantic Division. Friday, we turned our attention to the Pacific Division, and today, we’re looking at the Metropolitan Division.
In our predictions, we’re including The Hockey News’ collective picks from this year’s Yearbook. But these files are your humble correspondent’s picks, so always remember to take them as a guesstimate. Onward, ho:
1. New Jersey Devils
The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 1st
Why I’ve Ranked Them First: The Devils were the sexy pick to do well last season, and we know how that turned out. They finished seventh in the Metro, with no playoff games and many bruised egos and frustrated fans. Some of that can be chalked up to injuries, but New Jersey GM Tom Fitzgerald did not run it back with the same group for this year.
He added goalie Jacob Markstrom, defensemen Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon and forwards Stefan Noesen and Paul Cotter to a lineup that is already one of the deepest and fastest in the NHL.
The end result is arguably the best squad in the division, one of the best teams in the NHL and a bona fide Stanley Cup front-runner. So long as Markstrom and backup Jake Allen do their jobs and the team stays healthy, the Devils’ offense and defense corps have tremendous depth and skill to do the heavy lifting.
They will face some excellent teams in the Metro, so it won’t be a cakewalk for New Jersey. But the balance in New Jersey is first-rate, and the blueliners could be one of the top groups in the league as well. Missing the playoffs would be catastrophic for the Devils, but that shouldn’t be an issue for them. They’re good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people still like them.
Why I Could Be Wrong: Markstrom has struggled with his consistency from year to year in the past couple of seasons, and at age 34, he’s approaching the back nine of his NHL career. If Markstrom is hurt or under-performing, the Devils could quickly find themselves battling for a wild-card berth in the Eastern Conference. But we suspect New Jersey won’t have the problems they had last season.
Fitzgerald is one of the craftier GMs in the game, and he’s done a bang-up job of restocking the team with new blood and a fresh perspective. He’s got phenomenal young talent including Jack and Luke Hughes, Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer, and his secondary talents are great enough to spread the responsibilities around as evenly as possible. We’re very confident we’re not wrong on this one, but it’s still on Devils players to prove last year was an anomaly.
2. New York Rangers
The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 2nd
Why I’ve Ranked Them Second: We were a big backer of the Rangers last season, when they finished with the NHL’s best regular-season record. But after a playoff performance that ended in a six-game series loss to the eventual Cup-champion Florida Panthers, the Blueshirts are returning to the drawing board with essentially the same lineup. That should be good enough for them to at least secure home-ice advantage in next spring’s post-season.
It all starts and ends in Manhattan with superstar goalie Igor Shesterkin. And although there’s a potential grey cloud looming on the horizon as far as Shesterkin’s next contract goes, for this season, at least, he will again be one of the best at his craft on the planet.
With a solid mix of young (Alexis Lafreniere) and older (Artemi Panarin) at forward and a collection of defensemen that many teams would kill for, the Rangers will thrive again this year. The only question will be whether they win the Metro again or cede top spot to either the Devils or Carolina Hurricanes.
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Why I Could Be Wrong: Rangers GM Chris Drury has methodically bolstered every position on his team, so it’s hard to envision the Blueshirts faltering significantly and missing out on home-ice advantage. If anything should happen to Shesterkin health-wise, backup Jonathan Quick showed last season he still has a good deal of competitive gas in the tank.
It would be ideal for the Rangers to get a better showing out of youngster Kaapo Kaako, but if he doesn’t grow his game early in the season, we can see Drury trading him for more veteran help and a short-term solution. But with Lafrieniere still in the early stages of what’s looking to be an excellent career, Kakko isn’t going to be depended on for much. They’ll be judged on their post-season success, but such is life for all legitimate Cup contenders.
3. Carolina Hurricanes
The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 3rd
Why I’ve Ranked Them Third: The Hurricanes won the same number of games (52) in 2023-24 as they did the previous season, but that wasn’t good enough to prevent them from falling to second spot in the Metro last year. After a slew of departures, Carolina doesn’t have the same quality depth heading into 2024-25.
To be sure, the Hurricanes still have a number of elite talents that will propel them back into the playoffs. Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas form an excellent nucleus up front, while veterans Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin, Dmitry Orlov and newcomers Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere make up an above-average defense corps.
Losing D-men Brady Skjei and Pesce makes them a weaker ‘D’ group, however, and goaltenders Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov aren’t close to the best netminding tandem in the NHL.
All things considered, the Hurricanes should be a lock to make the playoffs, but home-ice advantage may not be in the cards for them this time around.
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Why I Could Be Wrong: The Hurricanes team that fell to the Rangers in the second round last spring was strong on offense, but defense was a different story, as they were the post-season’s 10th-best team in their own zone, averaging 2.91 goals-against per game. Walker and Gostisbehere aren’t the type of shut-down blueliners they need, so expecting them to improve on ‘D’ may be a stretch.
The Hurricanes are fortunate the rest of the Metro has a deep drop-off point in overall talent, so they’re not likely to be challenged by the teams we’ve ranked lower than them in this file. But who knows – maybe this iteration of Carolina’s team will finally break through and run to the Eastern Conference final and beyond. Stranger things have happened, so don’t be surprised if the Hurricanes live up to expectations and knock off the rest of the Metropolitan teams in the playoffs.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 6th
Why I’ve Ranked Them Fourth: There’s plenty to be concerned about with the Penguins, and we’ll deal with those potential trouble spots below. But let’s give GM Kyle Dubas some credit – he’s done what he can with Pittsburgh’s limited salary cap room and turned this year’s Penguins into a veteran-heavy group that should be an improvement on the disappointing squad they were last season.
A lot will depend on how well Pittsburgh’s goaltending and defense holds up. They were mediocre in their own zone last season, and their offense was even less effective. But if netminder Tristan Jarry comes up with a quality performance this season, and newcomer forwards Kevin Hayes, Cody Glass, Anthony Beauvillier and rookie Rutger McGroarty make a positive impact, the Pens should earn one of the two wild-card berths in the East.
We wouldn’t bet the house on that happening, but we are confident the Penguins will be better than they were last year, and they should get into the post-season, even if they’re first-round fodder once they get there.
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Why I Could Be Wrong: This is not a team that will be able to outdo the Devils, Rangers and Hurricanes, and considering the level of competition they’re going to face from teams we’ve ranked below them, the Penguins could easily slip down into fifth or sixth spot in the Metro.
If there’s an injury to one of their core players – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson – the Pens don’t have enough skill in the system to adequately replace one of those talents.
Jarry also has to provide solid goaltending, and they need good luck on the health front to put up a proper fight and earn a playoff spot. But we believe in Crosby first and foremost, and the notion the Penguins could miss the playoffs for three consecutive seasons in the Crosby Era seems unlikely. The danger they could do that is real, though.
5. Washington Capitals
The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 5th
Why I’ve Ranked Them Fifth: Many observers see the changes Washington has made this summer as sufficient cause to project them as a playoff team. With due respect to newcomers Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Matt Roy, Jakob Chychrun and Logan Thompson, we’re not nearly so sure.
There’s a reason why Dubois is now on his fourth NHL team in nine seasons, and it’s because the 26-year-old is inconsistent and prone to disappearing when games matter most.
Meanwhile, the Capitals’ core of Alex Ovechkin (now 39), John Carlson (34) and Tom Wilson (30) are out of their prime. And in net, No. 1 option Charlie Lindgren has to demonstrate he can put up consecutive excellent seasons. The 30-year-old should play about the same amount (50 games) as he did last year, but Thompson will have to play at least as well as he did in Vegas last year to take the pressure off Lindgren night in and night out. In any case, the Caps won’t be the worst team in the NHL by any metric, but in a crowded Metro, they also could fall just short of the post-season.
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Why I Could Be Wrong: We didn’t peg the Capitals as a playoff team last year, but they did sneak into the post-season, so there’s definitely a chance the same thing happens again in 2024-25. However, for that to take place, teams like the Penguins and New York Islanders are going to have to falter, and while that could come to pass for both teams, there’s an equal chance one of the two overtakes Washington in the Metro standings and squeezes them out of a playoff spot.
Much of the spotlight this season in Capitals Land will center around Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-scoring record. That could overshadow Washington’s pursuit of a playoff spot. We’re not completely counting the Capitals out, but we’re still skeptical they can do anything of consequence in the standings.
6. New York Islanders
The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 4th
Why I’ve Ranked Them Sixth: Few teams made fewer off-season moves than the Islanders did this summer, and while that’s not an assurance they can’t be a playoff team yet again this year, the Isles are going to be in tough to overtake improved teams like the Penguins and Capitals this season.
GM Lou Lamoriello and coach Patrick Roy are never lacking for confidence, and that should be a positive for their players. But ask yourself this – which team(s) will the Islanders beat to secure a playoff spot? We don’t see it with any of the five teams mentioned above.
The Islanders have one of the better goalie tandems in the game, and their defense corps might be better than they’ve been in the past little while. But the Isles were in the bottom half of the NHL on offense and defense last season, and that’s a bad harbinger of what’s to come in 2024-25.
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Why I Could Be Wrong: With star Ilya Sorokin and backup Semyon Varlamov between the pipes, the Isles have the kind of goaltending depth many teams dream of. So perhaps there’s a scenario in which the netminders help carry the Islanders to a third straight playoff appearance. But the Islanders’ lack of a true top-10 superstar on defense or offense is one of the things we see hamstringing them in their fight for a playoff spot.
Lamoriello is as cold-blooded an executive there is in the sport, so if his team is struggling early on, we can envision the Islanders making moves during the season. But if that happens, it will almost assuredly mean the Isles will miss the playoffs. There’s too many similarly skilled teams to give the Islanders a leg up on the rest of the Metro field.
7. Philadelphia Flyers
The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 6th
Why I’ve Ranked Them Seventh: The Flyers surprised the NHL early last season, looking like they were bound for a playoff spot. Then reality set in during the second half of the year, and Philadelphia wound up finishing in sixth spot in the Metro, well out of the top part of the NHL draft, where they really should be at this point in their competitive cycle.
Unfortunately (or fortunately) for Flyers fans, this season will likely be as painful as the end of last season for Philly. There are quite a few youngsters who are long-term puzzle pieces in the macro picture, but the Flyers have too many mid-tier veterans – and a questionable duo in net – to be serious contenders for a playoff spot this season. GM Daniel Briere is going about his business the right way, but the right way means taking their lumps and focusing on the future, and that’s why this year should end with Philadelphia out of the playoffs for the fifth straight season.
Related: NHL Prospect Pool Overview 2024-25: Philadelphia Flyers May Have Hit Multiple Home Runs
Why I Could Be Wrong: Nobody gave Philly much of a chance last year, taking the pressure off of them out of the gate, and setting the table for that early-season success. Maybe rookie Matvei Michkov dazzles and wins the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s best first-year player, and maybe their other youngsters continue developing into high-end assets. Good things can still happen for this group.
But the competition in the Metro is just too great for the Flyers to push their way into a playoff spot, and we’re almost certain Philadelphia will need a few more years before they’re a legitimate playoff team year in and year out.
8. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Hockey News Yearbook Division Rank: 8th
Why I’ve Ranked Them Eighth: The Blue Jackets have had an unimaginable tragedy with the deaths of star left winger Johnny Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew Gaudreau, this summer. That will cast a cloud over everything Columbus does this year, and for many years to come.
From a hockey-only perspective, the Jackets remain without enough depth to climb out of the Metro basement. From their goaltending to their defense to their forwards, Columbus is lacking for Grade-A talent, and that’s not likely to change this season.
There can still be areas that inspire confidence better days are coming for the Blue Jackets, but they’re still too early in this competitive cycle to realistically be a playoff-caliber team this season. There has to be time for healing from the loss of the Gaudreau brothers, and there has to be more time for Columbus’ youngsters to grow into first-rate NHLers. Until that happens, it’s going to be tough sledding for the Blue Jackets.
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Why I Could Be Wrong: Even with newcomers Sean Monahan, James van Riemsdyk and Jordan Harris providing a spark of new blood in Columbus, the notion that this lineup will consistently win enough to prove us wrong is a stretch. While Columbus can take some solace in getting another high draft pick next summer, there’s no question it’s going to be a difficult season in many regards.
We’re hoping for the best for Jackets fans, who’ve endured more disappointment and dismay than most fan bases have been through in the salary cap era. Incremental improvement is about as good as it’s going to get for them for the short term, and people need to be patient with them. Better days will be coming, but not this year.
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- Predicting The NHL's Metropolitan Division Rankings In 2024-25
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