With the 2023 MLB regular season at the 50-game mark, it’s a good time to check out some betting trends across the majors. When it comes to wagering on baseball, most bettors like to bet on the run line, which is another way of saying “betting the spread” in baseball. The run line is usually set at -1.5 or +1.5 for various MLB games and can provide bettors with more value than betting on a moneyline priced at -200 or higher.
This season, the Orioles (32-17), Rangers (31-18), Nationals (31-18), Rays (30-21), and Diamondbacks (29-21) are the five best teams on the run line, meaning bettors can trust these teams more often than not to cover the 1.5-run spread. Meanwhile, the Athletics, Mets, Royals, Phillies, and Marlins have not been on the run line this season, meaning bettors should likely fade these teams and look to play the opposite side.
Below, we’ll look at why each team is struggling on the run line to start the 2023 season and if bettors should fade them going forward.
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Five worst teams on the run line in MLB
1. New York Mets (17-33). Before the regular season began, you would’ve been surprised to see the Mets on this list, especially with future Hall-of-Fame starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer leading the rotation and a few high-quality bats (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, etc.) in the starting lineup.
However, the Mets, who are in second place in the NL East with a record of 25-25 this season, have the worst run line record in the majors. According to TeamRankings, New York’s average margin of victory is -0.4, and its run line +/- is -1.1 (second worst behind the Athletics -2.1).
The Mets have a run differential of -21 this season, which could be attributed to their pitching, which has a 4.70 ERA (seventh worst in the majors). Additionally, New York has not played well away from Citi Field this season, posting a 13-16 record and a 10-19 record on the run line (-0.5 average margin of victory). If a bettor were to bet one unit on the Mets’ run line this season, they would be down -15.25 units, according to BetMGM insights. This trend could flip quickly if the Mets’ pitching gets healthy and finds its groove, but until then, beware.
2. Kansas City Royals (18-33). Unlike the Mets, who have played at least .500 or better baseball this season, the Royals have been one of the worst teams in baseball. Kansas City currently has the second-worst record in MLB (15-36) and a -73 run differential. The Royals’ pitching has not been great this year (5.15 ERA), and their best starting pitcher has been Zack Greinke with a 4.55 ERA.
Offensively, the Royals are hitting .229 as a team and have a BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) of .281 (seventh worst in the majors). If you are getting into baseball betting, you must fade the Royals on the RL and look to take their opponents more times than not.
Kansas City’s average margin of victory is -1.4, and its run line +/- is -0.3, which is an improvement. However, it doesn’t take away from the Royals being 7-19 on the run line at home and 11-14 on the run line away from Kaufmann Stadium. Bettors are losing money fast on Kansas City’s run line this season, as they would be down 17.5 units this season if they bet the Royals’ run line every game.
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3. Philadelphia Phillies (19-30). The defending NL champs have dealt with myriad injuries throughout the early part of this season, which has played a role in them having the third-worst run-line record. The Phillies are 23-26 this season but have been horrible on the road with a 9-16 record. Moreover, their run-line record away (11-14) from Citizens Bank Park almost correlates to their overall road record.
The Phillies have been outscored by 31 runs this season, and their overall average margin of victory on the run line is -0.6. Philadelphia’s offense simply hasn’t found its groove yet with guys in and out of the lineup, as they are scoring 4.29 runs per game (19th best in the majors). Meanwhile, their pitching hasn’t stepped up either, shown by a 4.54 ERA and just 17 quality starts.
Based on their 11-20 record (35.5 cover percentage) and a 0.3 margin of victory, it’s been tough to trust the Phillies when they have been the favorites on the run line this season. Bettors are down 9.4 units when wagering on the Phillies to cover the run line, according to BetMGM, but if Trea Turner starts hitting and the team gets on track, there could be a swift correction.
4. Miami Marlins (19-31). The Marlins have the same record as the Mets but are getting outscored by 49 runs this season. Miami is led by reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara on the mound, but he’s struggled to start the season (2-5, 4.86 ERA). Miami’s best starter has been Jesus Luzardo, with a 3.86 ERA.
However, the main issue with the Marlins is their offense, which makes them tough to back on the run line on a nightly basis. Miami is scoring 3.62 runs per game (third worst in baseball) and only 3.28 runs per game at home. That’s led to an 8-17 record on the run line at home with a -1.1 margin of victory and a run line +/- of -1.4. Miami fans and bettors alike would be down a massive 14.4 units if they were to bet a unit on the Marlins to cover the run line. Hopefully, bettors have not decided to go down that path and instead doubled down on the Marlins’ opponent, which seems like a good idea for the immediate future.
5. Oakland Athletics (19-32). Lastly, let’s talk about the Athletics, who might be moving to Las Vegas and are lucky to get 10,000 fans at a game in Oakland this season. The A’s have been the worst team in baseball, posting a 10-41 record and a run differential of -183. They are recording 3.5 runs per game (second worst in the majors) and possess a 6.95 ERA.
If there’s an angle to bet on Oakland, it would be their starting pitcher’s earned run props because they are getting rocked in almost every start. The A’s are surprisingly 10-15 on the run line at home but 9-17 on the run line away from Oakland. On the road, the Athletics’ margin of victory is -3.7, and their run line +/- isn’t better at -2.3 (worst in the majors). If bettors were to bet on Oakland’s run line this season, they would be down 15.1 units, according to BetMGM insights. Among all these teams we listed, the A’s are the best team to fade because they don’t have anything going right for them.