There are certain moments in the life of every NHL star that define them and shape their legacy. The players who thrive in pressure-packed moments go on to be Hockey Hall-of-Famers and franchise icons. Those who don’t are forever clouded in disappointment and frustration. And in Toronto Saturday night, Maple Leafs star winger Mitch Marner is facing one of those moments.
It may not be perfectly fair, but Marner and his teammates need to come up with a huge and successful effort when they take on the Boston Bruins in Game 4 of their series Saturday – and if that doesn’t happen, there are going to be massive ramifications for Marner and Toronto’s “Core Four”.
Let’s get one thing out of the way: we’re in no way suggesting Marner is a poor post-season performer. As THN’s Michael Traikos made clear, Marner is a point-per-game playoff contributor, and there are many teams who’d want him on their side. But if the Buds falter once again, there are going to be consequences that affect him, directly and indirectly. It’s safe to say Game 4 is the biggest game of Marner’s career, and the 26-year-old cannot be seen to be a passenger Saturday night. If Toronto wins, the Leafs are locked into a best-of-three against the Bruins, and Marner earns the praise he’ll receive; if the Leafs lose, Marner will be labeled as someone who can’t get it done when games matter most. Again, this is not entirely fair, but these are the optics that can’t be denied.
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And what would the fallout be if Toronto loses Saturday and basically assures itself of a first-round exit? Well, let’s look at the “Core Four”, and break down who would pay the biggest price: superstar center Auston Matthews isn’t going anywhere under any circumstances, as he’s going to be entering Year 1 of a three-year contract extension; the same goes for star winger William Nylander, who also will be kicking off the first year of an eight-year contract extension next season; and captain John Tavares isn’t going anywhere either, as he’ll be entering the final season of a lucrative contract that essentially makes him untradeable.
If you’re good at math, you know that means Marner is the “Core Four” component who will most likely be moved, probably for elite help on defense. Marner’s contract will be up at the end of the 2024-25 season, but given his $10.9-million cap hit, Marner will almost certainly be the guy Leafs GM Brad Treliving goes to and asks to move on. Marner does have a full no-move clause in his deal, but as all learned hockey observers understand, a no-trade or no-move clause is no real guarantee a player will remain on the team that gave him said clause. Rather, a no-trade or no-move clause assures the player has a say in where he goes.
Should Treliving tell Marner he no longer fits into the team’s long-term blueprint, Marner will accept a deal out of town. Nobody likes being where they’re not wanted, and the blowback from fans and media in the wake of another first-round exit will be unpalatable for Marner. Like many who came before him, Marner will agree to a trade out of Toronto and perhaps find a better team match for him down the line.
The good news if you’re a Leafs and Marner fan is that there’s still time to salvage his situation in Toronto. If he helps shut down the Bruins on the defensive end in Game 4 and the rest of the series, Marner will be rightly lauded. If he chips in a goal or a couple of assists, he’ll also earn praise and affection. But in two of the three games the Bruins and Leafs have played in this series, Marner did not get those tasks done. He’s been outshined by Matthews on his own team, and by Bruins counterparts Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk. And now, he’s on the precipice of a career-defining moment. Imagine how much pressure he’s feeling heading into Game 4. Of course, that’s why he’s paid so handsomely, but there’s no denying the ball is in his court, and it’s now up to him to either rise to the occasion or join the long list of Leafs stars who couldn’t carry the team to playoff glory.
TORONTO HAS THE ICEBREAKER 🧊
It's Mitch Marner (@Marner93) with a spectacular pass to Matthew Knies to open the scoring in Game 3! #StanleyCup
🇺🇸: @espn ➡️ https://t.co/Pp9X7OGP3W
🇨🇦: @Sportsnet or stream on Sportsnet+ ➡️ https://t.co/sEijvXhbA1 pic.twitter.com/abXulPTuF4— NHL (@NHL) April 25, 2024
Marner has said many times he doesn’t pay attention to what’s said about him in the press, and if that’s true, good for him. He answers only to his organization, his coaching and management. But he has to understand how high the stakes are right now. He has to reconcile the optics of the predicament with its reality and find a way to rise above the skepticism and deliver a series win. The playoffs are a zero-sum process, and if Boston once again manhandles the Leafs and puts them one loss away from elimination, the focus is going to be on Marner, and the ensuing vibes are going to be extremely negative.
Marner isn’t the sole decider of what Toronto will be able to do, but to call him just another member of the Leafs and someone who has an equal share of the blame with the rest of his teammates would not be accurate. He’s one of the Leafs’ most prominent players, a longtime fan favorite and someone who has to be a difference-maker now. If he can’t do that, Treliving will have no choice but to have that delicate conversation with Marner this summer about his future. And he’ll almost certainly be traded.
There’s no way the Leafs can go back next season with the same key players who haven’t been able to find sustained success, and rightly or wrongly, Marner’s place in the pecking order is now at the bottom of the “Core Four”. Marner has never had the pressure that Game 4 will bring, and if he can’t handle it and find a way to steer Toronto past Boston, his days in Blue and White are numbered.
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News Summary:
- Make-or-Break for Leafs' Mitch Marner in Game 4 Against Rival Bruins
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