Garcia and Kasatkina clash for semifinal spot

WTA Finals Day 6: Order of play (starts 1:30 PM)
[5] Lyudmyla KICHENOK (UKR) / Jelena OSTAPENKO (LAT) vs [7] Anna DANILINA (KAZ) / Beatriz HADDAD MAIA (BRA) 
NB 3:30 PM [6] Caroline GARCIA (FRA) vs [8] Daria KASATKINA 
NB 7:00 PM [1] Iga SWIATEK (POL) vs [4] Coco GAUFF (USA) 
[2] Gabriela DABROWSKI (CAN) / Giuliana OLMOS (MEX) vs [4] Veronika KUDERMETOVA / Elise MERTENS (BEL) 

The conclusion of the Tracy Austin Group on Day 6 of the WTA Finals features a straight shoot-out for one remaining semifinal place. The winner of the match between No.6 seed Caroline Garcia and No.8 seed Daria Kasatkina goes through in second place.

No.1 seed Iga Swiatek, who has already won the group, will then face No.4 seed Coco Gauff, who cannot advance.

WTA Finals scenarios: Day 6

[6] Caroline Garcia (FRA) vs [8] Daria Kasatkina

Head-to-head: 1-1 (both on hard courts)

1. Garcia has been in this position before. On her WTA Finals debut in 2017, the Frenchwoman was 1-1 going into the last day of round-robin play, and needed a victory over Caroline Wozniacki to have a chance of advancing. Wozniacki had only lost eight games to Garcia in two previous meetings combined, and conceded just four games in her two previous victories that week in Singapore.

The Dane continued both patterns as she took a dominant first set, but with her back to the wall Garcia overcame the odds to pull off a 0-6, 6-3, 7-5 victory that put her into the semifinals. It would be eventual champion Wozniacki’s only defeat of that year’s WTA Finals.

Road to the WTA Finals: Caroline Garcia | Daria Kasatkina

2. The importance of the serve will be key for Garcia. There’s no question about which player has the superior service. Garcia has served more aces than any other player on tour this year, adding three during her loss to Swiatek to take her total to 373 and pulling clear of Elena Rybakina’s 370.

By contrast, Kasatkina has not won more than 55% of her first-serve points in either of her matches so far this week, and her combined second-serve winning percentage is just 41%. These numbers could play into the hands of Garcia, whose ultra-aggressive returning position has been notable during her surge this year.

Highlights: Kasatkina d. Garcia, R2 San Jose 2021

3. History suggests it may not be that straightforward. In a straight battle between serve and return, Garcia has a heavy advantage. But if Kasatkina is able to survive the first strikes and draw Garcia into rallies, she’ll be able to play the match on her own territory.

“She’s going to be a step inside the court and I’ll try to be a goalkeeper there on the court,” as Kasatkina put it.

That’s something Kasatkina did in their most recent meeting, a 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 victory in the 2021 San Jose second round.

[1] Iga Swiatek (POL) vs [4] Coco Gauff (USA)

Head-to-head: Swiatek leads 4-0 (2-0 on hard courts, 3-0 in 2022)

1. Swiatek will be aiming for a perfect round robin. The Pole has yet to drop a set in Fort Worth, and has conceded just five games in two matches.

Since the round-robin format was reinstituted at the WTA Finals in 2003, only seven players on eight occasions have gone 6-0 in sets at the group stage: Amélie Mauresmo (2004), Maria Sharapova (2006), Justine Henin (2007), Vera Zvonareva (2010), Petra Kvitova (2011), Serena Williams (2012 and 2013) and Elina Svitolina (2019). The fewest games conceded in the round robin was Henin’s 11, followed by 15 for Mauresmo and Williams in 2013.

Road to the WTA Finals: Coco Gauff | Daria Kasatkina

2. Gauff will be seeking to salvage a positive from her WTA Finals debut. The American has yet to capture a set in Fort Worth, and has won 16 games in two matches.

Since 2003, six players on nine occasions have gone 0-6 in sets at the group stage: Elena Dementieva (2004, 2005 and 2006), Zvonareva (2004), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2008), Dinara Safina (2008), Jelena Jankovic (2010), Eugenie Bouchard (2014) and Agnieszka Radwanska (2014). The fewest games won in the round robin was Bouchard’s 11, followed by Jankovic’s 13, then Dementieva’s 15 in 2005.

Highlights: Swiatek d. Gauff, SF Rome 2021 | Swiatek d. Gauff, R4 Miami 2022 | Swiatek d. Gauff, QF San Diego 2022

3. Swiatek is increasingly dominant in their rivalry. The first meeting between Swiatek and Gauff was a close two-setter, with Swiatek winning 7-6(3), 6-3 in the 2021 Rome semifinals.

But the World No.1 only lost four games in each of their next two meetings, in the fourth round of Miami and Roland Garros final this year. She tightened her grip further and conceded only three games in their fourth meeting, winning 6-0, 6-3 in the San Diego quarterfinals three weeks ago.

In doubles, there’s still all to play for as the Pam Shriver Group reaches its climax. No.5 seeds Lyudmyla Kichenok and Jelena Ostapenko take on No.7 seeds Anna Danilina and Beatriz Haddad Maia, before No.2 seeds Gabriela Dabrowski and Giuliana Olmos face No.4 seeds Veronika Kudermetova and Elise Mertens.

All four teams are still able to advance. The full scenarios are below.