Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
The Edmonton Oilers are on the clock.
They have until Aug. 20 to decide if they’ll match the offer sheets tendered to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway by the St. Louis Blues or walk away and accept the compensation attached to both offers – a second-rounder for Broberg and third-rounder for Holloway.
That’s not necessarily an easy decision to make.
These offers were calculated and precise, and St. Louis knew what it was doing. The Blues targeted two players at once, ensuring the numbers for each and in combination were just out of the realm of comfort for the Oilers. The Blues also knew that retaliation was next to impossible, thanks to big contracts for elite players Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl coming down the pipe.
Elliotte Friedman said in a surprise 32 Thoughts summer podcast episode that it feels like signing both of them would be the only way it would work for the Blues. He added that St. Louis didn’t want to give Edmonton an easy out.
As such, the Oilers have a tough choice to make. Here’s what may determine their direction.
Do the Oilers Want To Keep Both Players?
Few have bothered to ask how badly the Oilers want both players on this roster.
It’s logical to assume the club doesn’t want to lose either player. However, what they’re willing to risk to keep two players they’ve invested time and energy in seems to be underappreciated in the shock of the offer sheets.
Internally, there may have been a number the franchise wasn’t comfortable exceeding for either, regardless of their cap situation. Perhaps the organization wasn’t sold that either player is enough of a difference-maker in this small window to win.
Edmonton was rumored to have had options earlier in the year. In a recent discussion on Oilers Now, Bob Stauffer noted that Ken Holland was instructed back in January to extend Broberg and Holloway, and he did not do so. There was also a speculated trade on the table from St. Louis for Pavel Buchnevich.
One scenario suggested that these deals weren’t prioritized. The other is that the Oilers heavily valued both. At the very least, it’s not clear how much the Oilers felt these two were part of the club’s future.
Related: NHL Prospect Pool Overview 2024-25: At Least the Edmonton Oilers Have Matt Savoie
Sending a Message To the Rest of the Roster
Matching both offer sheets does a couple of things.
First, it tells another club they won’t be bullied into a decision, even if matching isn’t necessarily the right decision.
It also tells the Oilers’ players they want to keep the roster together.
Several players chose to stay at discounted prices this summer. There is talk that Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid may consider the same. While no one should blame Broberg or Holloway for taking the opportunity to make more in St. Louis than they would have in Edmonton, their decision to think about their opportunities was a priority placed above the team’s best interests.
If the Oilers want to tell the team the expectation is that everyone will have to leave a little money on the table to keep a winning roster together, matching these offers sends a conflicting message.
Evander Kane’s Injury Situation
Friedman said he believes Evander Kane will have surgery before the season.
“One of the reasons it took this long is because there was some conversations (about) which doctor was going to do it, and who was available,” Friedman said. “He’s going to be out months; I’m not talking like one to two months.”
If true, the Oilers are down a 20-goal scorer, but it would add some breathing room for cap space, even if it doesn’t completely solve their issues.
NEW: Evander Kane's Health is Now More Important Than Ever
Whether Kane goes on LTIR is suddenly a much bigger thing. #LetsGoOilers
https://t.co/BDE2Hin7JY— Caleb Kerney (@CKerneyWriter) August 13, 2024
Kane being out for months would give the Oilers time to match the offers and adjust their roster during the year. If it becomes known that Kane will be out until the playoffs, which is doubtful, there is less need to worry.
Edmonton would need to make only minor tweaks to find another $2 million or so to become cap-compliant. If they match both offers, they’d be about $7.2 million over their salary cap limit, per PuckPedia.
If Kane doesn’t have surgery and is back in September, the Oilers would have to do some serious cap gymnastics to make this work.
Related: Oilers’ Ultimate Wild Card: Balancing Evander Kane’s Cap Hit and Injury Uncertainty
Can a Trade Happen?
If the Oilers choose not to match one or both deals, they must figure out the backup plan. They’d have to figure out where to find a replacement on the blueline if Broberg winds up in St. Louis. Conversely, if Edmonton chooses to match and keep Broberg, they may have to move Cody Ceci or Brett Kulak.
Another question is how easily the Oilers can replace the production Holloway was expected to bring. Unless Matt Savoie is ready to take a step, the Oilers must decide if they have enough internally to fill the hole or acquire someone through a professional tryout, free agency or a trade.
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News Summary:
- Four Huge Factors Will Determine Oilers' Response to Blues' Offer Sheets
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