Sergio Perez is starting to make it very difficult for Red Bull not to give him a new deal for 2025 after he secured his third second place in four races in Japan – but several others have been linked with drive. So, what’s the current state of play and who will be in that seat next year?
What does the future hold for Perez?
Perez, who joined Red Bull for 2022, has a contract that runs up until the end of the current campaign. By his own admission, he endured a challenging season in 2023 as he battled to get to grips with the RB19, the Mexican winning two races to his team mate Max Verstappen’s 19.
READ MORE: Perez expects decision on Red Bull future to be made ‘within next month’
Perez still finished a career-best second in last year’s drivers’ championship and entered the season with the team saying they would give him every opportunity to prove he deserved a contract renewal.
The 34-year-old has seized his opportunity, finishing second to Verstappen in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and last time out Japan. In the latter event, he was just 0.066s adrift of his team mate in the fight for pole, too.
So, surely he’s nailed on to continue in 2025?
Well, there is no doubt this run of results has made him favourite to keep his place next season.
However, over the last eight months, Red Bull have been mulling their options about potential replacements in case Perez didn’t deliver more consistency. It’s what every team would do in a similar situation.
Multiple sources say when Red Bull drafted Daniel Ricciardo back into the Red Bull family – and then placed him in the AlphaTauri team last year – it was with the intention of evaluating him for Perez’s seat.
Ricicardo is a popular member of the Red Bull group, very marketable and had shown the energy drinks firm in a Pirelli tyre test at Silverstone last year that given the right machinery and surroundings, he had potentially lost none of his speed.
READ MORE: Ricciardo adamant his confidence remains unchanged despite ‘frustrating’ start to 2024
That’s why they gave him a shot at AlphaTauri to prove to them he could deliver. His comeback was hampered by a freak crash that required surgery on his hand but they opted to keep him on for this season to give him the chance to show his capabilities.
It looks like Ricciardo’s poor form is making their decision easier…?
Yep, you’re right. This has not been the start to the season that Ricciardo will have hoped for. The Australian has struggled to get comfortable with the RB and is being outshone by team mate Yuki Tsunoda.
He’s 4-0 down in the qualifying head-to-head and has failed to score in the opening four races – whereas Tsunoda has scored twice in as many races.
That form was put to Red Bull boss Christian Horner on Sunday after the Japanese Grand Prix where Ricciardo crashed on Lap 1, to which he replied: “Daniel is a big boy. He’s been around the block, he knows how things work.
READ MORE > PALMER: This season was meant to be an audition for a Red Bull return, but is Ricciardo now under pressure at RB?
“He just needs to get a good result in the bag and the smile will return. His team mate’s delivering and naturally then that puts pressure on you, but he’s been there before and I’m sure he’ll bounce back.”
Is Horner concerned about Ricciardo? “We’re at race four,” he replied deadpan.
Sure, Ricciardo is not doing himself any favours at the moment – and it’s not ideal for him that his bad run of form is coming at a time when Perez and Tsunoda are shining, but even if Red Bull are famous for lacking patience, giving up on a driver with a proven track record and who they have put a lot of time into trying to rebuild this early is unlikely – even for them.
OK, so who do they want in the seat?
There’s never an accurate answer to that until pen is put to paper. There’s a high chance they don’t even know right now, with no clear frontrunner.
Driver market decision-making is never black and white. Team Principals are human. They can change their minds, react to changing circumstances or stick to their guns.
A driver who might be top of a shortlist one day might not be the next week. Or a new driver might come into their thinking, like Carlos Sainz…
READ MORE: Sainz insists it’s ‘time to speed up everything’ as he assesses his 2025 options
Ooooh, so he’s in the mix now?
Multiple sources say Red Bull have spoken to Team Sainz about a return to the Red Bull family he left during the 2017 season to join Renault.
The Spaniard is in the form of his life. He has finished on the podium in every race he has started this year, including a brilliant win in Australia.
And he’s the only driver to stop a Red Bull winning since George Russell won in Brazil in 2022 for Mercedes.
He’s definitely under consideration, but Red Bull haven’t decided if pairing him up with Verstappen again (they were team mates in their respective debut seasons in 2015) is a good idea.
READ MORE > BARRETTO: He’s hot property after his brilliant Melbourne win – but where will Sainz be racing in 2025?
What about Tsunoda? He’s in great form, too…
You’re right. He’s excelling at RB right now. His drive to seventh in Australia was sensational, as was the way he soaked up the pressure of a nation to score a point in his home race last time out in Japan.
But sources say for now at least, he isn’t on the shortlist as a potential candidate for the second Red Bull seat. I understand it is more likely he’s doing enough to retain his seat at RB for next year.
OK, so what is the state of play?
As it stands, Horner insists Checo “has the priority” and sources say that he has gained considerable kudos within the team in the way he’s approached the start of this year, which in turn has pushed him higher up in Red Bull’s thinking.
However, while sources admit Ricciardo’s star has lost some of its shine within Red Bull, they aren’t ruling him out just yet. And Sainz very much remains in the mix, while Fernando Alonso is of course no longer a contender, having signed a new deal with Aston Martin.
READ MORE: Alonso signs new deal with Aston Martin to end speculation over F1 future
Is Verstappen staying? We know he has a contract until the end of 2028 – but there’s been so much talk he could leave sooner…
That chatter has started to die down recently – with the growing feeling being he is going to stay put.
What he does is, of course, a key factor in deciding who is in the other seat. If Verstappen leaves, Red Bull will have to revise their thinking about their line-up entirely. For now, though, they’re working on the basis he will stay in the short term (his contract runs up until the end of 2028) at the very least.
What about the RB seats?
There’s no rush to decide on these – with Red Bull together with RB CEO Peter Bayer and Team Principal Laurent Mekies unlikely to make a call before the summer.
If Ricciardo misses out on a seat at Red Bull, it will be between him, Tsunoda and reserve Liam Lawson. It is believed that Red Bull are keen to give Lawson a shot in 2025 after his impressive showing standing in for Ricciardo last year, which means it could be a shoot-out between Tsunoda and Ricciardo.
News Summary:
- DRIVER MARKET: Perez? Ricciardo? Sainz? Who will be in that coveted second Red Bull seat next season?
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