One of the standout fixtures of the group stage of Euro 2024 will take place on Thursday.
Spain vs Italy odds
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⚡Quick Spain vs Italy betting tips
Spain vs Italy predictions
For a long time, Spain were one of the biggest underachievers in international football. Up until 2008, they had only ever won one major trophy – and their sole success came on home soil at Euro 1964.
Around that time, Spanish football was producing an abundance of small, technically gifted footballers. Luis Aragones, a manager renowned for a direct, physical approach, recognised what he had at his disposal and began the shift towards a possession-based style of play.
It would prove to be transformative. Spain went on to win three tournaments in a row: Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012. Aragones was the manager for the first triumph, with Spain strengthening the gospel of ball-control-at-all-costs under his successor Vicente del Bosque.
Eventually, though, the stars of those victories went past their peak and opponents worked out how to stop Spain. In more recent times, la Roja have been pretty disappointing.
On occasion they have even descended into self-parody, dominating possession but providing little thrust or cutting edge. At Euro 2016, World Cup 2018 and World Cup 2022, Spain went out in the last 16.
In their first game at this tournament, though, Spain ripped up the playbook. For the first time since the final of Euro 2008, they had a lesser share of possession than their opponents in a competitive match.
Croatia controlled the ball for 54 percent of the time on Saturday, as Spain demonstrated a willingness to go a little more direct. The result? Luis de la Fuente’s side ran out 3-0 winners to take control of Group B.
To be clear, Spain have not suddenly become a route-one, long-ball side. But in Nico Williams, Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal, they have several players who thrive in one-versus-one situations and prefer to run at their markers rather than turning back and playing a safe horizontal pass.
Whether or not it helps la Roja get any closer to another piece of silverware remains to be seen. But it is certainly an interesting twist on the usual Spanish dish.
Spain vs Italy betting tips
The winner of Spain vs Italy will be in pole position to finish top of Group B at Euro 2024.
Spain to win – 23/20 (Betfred)
Italy also got off to a winning start, beating Albania 2-1 despite falling behind within 23 seconds. It was a decent first performance from the Azzurri, but this will be a much sterner examination of their credentials.
Italy arrived in Germany with low expectations. They will hope that ultimately works in their favour, but Spain will put them through their paces on Thursday.
De la Fuente’s side should ultimately have too much quality for the defending champions. Man for man, the likely Spain XI is superior to Italy’s.
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A midfield three of Rodri, Fabian Ruiz and Pedri will help Spain to get control in the centre of the park, especially if Italy stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation we saw against Albania.
And as the Croatia match revealed, Spain now have the players to quicken the tempo in the final third.
This is not a vintage Italy team and this could ultimately be a frustrating night for Luciano Spalletti and co.
⚽ Tip Spain to win at 23/20 with Betfred ⚽
Both teams to score – 16/19 (VBET)
Spain’s 3-0 victory over Croatia may give the impression that it was a one-sided encounter. In fact, Croatia had more shots and a higher xG.
That does not mean Spain were not worthy winners. But it does point to the fact that they have up a fair few chances on matchday one.
That is something that will give Italy confidence ahead of this blockbuster clash in Gelsenkirchen.
They will look to get the likes of David Frattesi, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Federico Chiesa into pockets of space between the lines, from where they will be able to cause the Spanish defence problems.
In truth, De la Fuente’s charges were fortunate to keep a clean sheet in their first game. They might not be so lucky this time around.
⚽ Select both teams to score at 16/19 with VBET ⚽
Lamine Yamal to score or assist – 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Yamal was the most eye-catching performer in Spain’s triumph over Croatia at the weekend. His performance was excellent even before you consider he is just 16 years of age.
Yamal registered an assist in the 3-0 win, setting up Dani Carvajal’s goal with a delicious cross from the right flank.
Spain’s coaches at club and international level have a duty of care given the winger’s tender years. It would be a great shame if he was overworked as a teenager and burned out too quickly.
But De la Fuente will find it difficult to leave Yamal out of the XI after his showing last time out.
The Barcelona boy is fearless and he will give Italy left-back Federico Dimarco plenty to think about in this one.
Whether it is a goal or another assist, expect Yamal to be heavily involved in Spain’s attacking output.
⚽ Back Lamine Yamal to score or assist at 6/4 with Sky Bet ⚽
How to watch Spain vs Italy
- Location: Veltin-Arena, Gelsenkirchen, Germany.
- Date and time: Thursday 20th June, 8pm.
- How to watch: BBC One.
Read more about Euro 2024
About the author
Greg Lea
Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.
Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball
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