2024 NBA playoffs predictions: Expert picks for every first-round series with Bucks on upset alert vs. Pacers

The field for the 2024 NBA playoffs is set after the Pelicans and Heat sealed the two final spots on Friday. Four first-round series got underway on Saturday, and the other four tip off on Sunday. You can view the full first-round schedule for all series here.

This has the makings to be a wild postseason ride with basically every series feeling like it could go either way. That said, I’m personally going all chalk in the first round except for one series: I think the No. 5 Mavericks take out the No. 4 Clippers (who are once again playing the annual “will he or won’t he play” game with Kawhi Leonard). This isn’t really an upset as the sportsbooks are favoring the Mavs to win the series.

I also wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if the Suns beat the Wolves, or if the Sixers got past the Knicks, or if the Pacers took out the Bucks, who are going to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 1 and potentially longer than that. But I’m not picking that way.

Do my CBS colleagues agree with me, or do they see a few more upsets on the board? Check it out, as our first-round picks are below.

Botkin: Celtics in 5. There is no logical part of my brain that can make any case for the Heat winning this series, and yet I fully expect them to pull off some kind of magic act and take this thing to six or seven when Jimmy Butler can possibly return with enough pressure on Boston’s shoulders to bring down a skyscraper. Whatever. I’ll never learn my lesson. The Heat just don’t have enough firepower. Boston wins in five.

Herbert: Celtics in 5. Boston’s the (way) better team, Jimmy Butler has a sprained MCL and I’d be shocked if Miami manages to put everything together the way it did last season. I can envision the Celtics dropping a game, I guess, but, after playing with their food in the first round in 2023, I feel like they’ve learned their lesson.

Maloney: Celtics in 5. We all know what happened last year, but this Celtics team is much better and the Heat aren’t going to have Jimmy Butler for at least part of this series.

Quinn: Celtics in 4. Well, the Celtics went 64-18, and the Heat won’t have their best player. I think that’s reason enough to call for a sweep.

Ward-Henninger: Celtics in 6. On paper this may look like a sweep, especially with Jimmy Butler potentially out for the whole series, but if you think being undermanned is going to stop the Heat then you haven’t been watching them over the past several years. The Celtics have been on cruise control for a while, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Miami steal one in Boston. Ultimately, though, the Celtics are just too good to lose this series.

Wimbish: Celtics in 5. Sure the Heat pummeled the Bulls without Jimmy Butler, but Boston is a different beast. Even if Butler managed to play through the MCL sprain, he wouldn’t be at 100% and I don’t think the Heat have enough to contend with Boston.

Knicks vs. 76ers

Botkin: Knicks in 7. New York wins a tough series on the strength of Jalen Brunson’s consistent shot creation and a major offensive rebounding edge that gives the Knicks too many extra possessions over the course of a series.

Herbert: Knicks in 7. Had I made this pick before the play-in, it would’ve been Philadelphia. I was spooked by the way Joel Embiid was moving against the Heat, so here we are.

Maloney: Knicks in 6. The Knicks are rolling and Joel Embiid did not look great in the Play-In game vs. the Heat. If Embiid cannot be his usual self and dominate inside, I don’t think the Sixers will have enough against a super-confident Knicks team with perhaps the best home-court advantage in the league.

Quinn: Knicks in 7. If Joel Embiid was 100%, I might reconsider. He clearly isn’t. The Knicks have two qualified centers to defend him in Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson. We’ll likely see OG Anunoby front him a fair bit as well. Philadelphia has only two reliable sources of offense in Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. The Knicks, even without Julius Randle, are just the far deeper team right now.

Ward-Henninger: Knicks in 7. his is a pretty even series in my opinion, so I’ll lean on the Knicks’ home-court advantage. Joel Embiid will have a couple of unstoppable games, but the Knicks’ offensive rebounding could be the difference in a tight matchup.

Wimbish: 76ers in 6. The Sixers barely escaped the Heat, but I’m betting on them to put forth a much better showing against the Knicks. I don’t think New York will be able to contain Joel Embiid, and if the Sixers really wanted to play the Knicks like Paul Reed said earlier this week, then they should show exactly why they preferred this matchup.

Bucks vs. Pacers

Botkin: Bucks in 7. Indiana is the popular upset pick but I think Milwaukee has enough to get through this one. I expect Damian Lillard to go big with a fresh start on what has been a tough season.

Herbert: Pacers in 6. This is a weird one because Giannis Antetokounmpo’s status is unclear and all their regular-season matchups took place before Milwaukee changed coaches and Indiana made a huge trade. The Pacers aren’t a disaster on defense anymore, and I’m not sure the Bucks can keep up with them on offense right now.

Maloney: Pacers in 6. The only time the Bucks won in five regular-season meetings against the Pacers is when Giannis Antetokounmpo had a career (and franchise) record 64 points. A lot has changed since those games for both teams, but the Pacers remain a bad matchup for the Bucks. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucks end up winning, but I can’t pick them with Antetokounmpo’s status unclear.

Quinn: Pacers in 6. Indiana’s whole defense is designed to give up layups to prevent 3s. Giannis Antetokounmpo can take advantage of that. The rest of the Bucks? Not so much. Antetokounmpo has been ruled out for Game 1. Calf injuries are tricky, and if the Pacers take a big enough lead in the series, it might not even be worthwhile for Milwaukee to bring Antetokounmpo back at all.

Ward-Henninger: Pacers in 6. The Bucks have looked lost all season, and now they may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for the entire series. Both teams got better defensively over the second half, but I trust the Pacers’ offensive machine to wear down Milwaukee over the course of the series.

Wimbish: Pacers in 6. The Pacers are lethal when they’re cooking on offense. Their defense is abysmal, but I don’t think Milwaukee has enough firepower on offense to keep up. Giannis being hobbled also makes me nervous for the Bucks.

Cavaliers vs. Magic

Botkin: Cavaliers in 6. Cleveland needs to win this series from beyond the arc and I believe the Cavs will. With Donovan Mitchell back and Sam Merrill, Georges Niang and Max Strus spacing around him and Darius Garland, Cleveland will get up enough 3s to win on math.

Herbert: Cavaliers in 6. My confidence level isn’t high, based on how badly Cleveland disappointed in last year’s playoffs, but I’m optimistic that it will stagger its rotation in such a way that it can recapture some of the rhythm it had before the All-Star break. Also, as awesome as Orlando is defensively, I worry that the team just won’t be able to score enough.

Maloney: Cavaliers in 6. The Cavs’ recent form and their performance in the playoffs last season makes me wary, but they have the best players in the series in Donovan Mitchell and far more experience. More than anything, this is a pick against Orlando’s poor offense and youth.

Quinn: Magic in 6. Donovan Mitchell has played far below his standard since the All-Star break. Neither Darius Garland nor Evan Mobley have improved as Cleveland had expected. I just don’t see how they’re going to score much against an Orlando defense that ranked No. 3 in the regular season and is ready to unleash Jonathan Isaac, the best per-minute defender in the NBA, in a bigger role now that the playoffs have arrived.

Ward-Henninger: Cavaliers in 7. This shapes up to be an ugly, grind-it-out series, and ultimately I trust Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to make plays down the stretch more than I trust Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner (at this stage in their careers). It should definitely be a close one, though.

Wimbish: Cavaliers in 7. I think this may be the most compelling series in the East out of the gate. It may not have the star power of other matchups, but Orlando has been a tough defensive team this season. I don’t think the Magic have enough consistent shooters to win this series but I do think this will be a drag out fight and it won’t be easy for Cleveland.

Botkin: Thunder in 5. Even if Zion were healthy the Thunder are just too good on both ends. Without Zion, forget about it.

Herbert: Thunder in 6. Two super fun, deep teams here. Since Zion Williamson will be sidelined for at least the beginning of the series, though, this is as generous as I can be to New Orleans. (I’m not going to concern-troll OKC about its lack of experience or whatever.)

Maloney: Thunder in 5. I would have picked the Thunder in this series no matter what, but the Pelicans don’t have a chance without Zion Williamson.

Quinn: Thunder in 5. Zion Williamson would have made this matchup interesting. His bulk would’ve caused problems for the relatively small Thunder. Without him? The talent disparity is just too great. The Thunder are the No. 1 seed for a reason.

Ward-Henninger: Thunder in 5. Those who may not know just how good the Thunder are will soon find out, and the Pelicans will be their first victim. Without Zion Williamson, New Orleans just doesn’t have enough punch to compete with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co.

Wimbish: Thunder in 6. This becomes a completely different series if Zion Williamson somehow plays, but as it stands I’ll give New Orleans two games on the Thunder, but ultimately I think OKC’s depth wins out.

Nuggets vs. Lakers

Botkin: Nuggets in 5. Tough break for the Lakers, who I think are a conference finals team, drawing Denver in round one. The Nuggets are just too great, plain and simple.

Herbert: Nuggets in 5. I’ll give Los Angeles a game this time, but, short of one of Denver’s starters getting hurt, it’s hard to envision the Lakers’ path to victory here. Is D’Angelo Russell going to get played off the floor the way he did last season?

Maloney: Nuggets in 5. I know it happened last season when these two teams met in the Western Conference Finals, but I can’t pick a LeBron James-led team to get swept, so I’m giving the Lakers a game. That’s all I think they’ll get, though. The Nuggets are just too good.

Quinn: Nuggets in 5. The Nuggets have won eight in a row against the Lakers. These two teams have played 18 clutch minutes since the start of the 2023 Western Conference Finals and the Nuggets have won those minutes by 32 points. I’ll give LeBron James a game, but the Lakers have done nothing to prove they can match Denver’s late-game execution.

Ward-Henninger: Nuggets in 5. With most of the same pieces back again, I don’t see why this series will go any differently than last year’s Western Conference Finals. The games will be close, but Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are just too perfect when it comes to clutch execution.

Wimbish: Nuggets in 6. I think L.A. is going to bring a lot of baggage to this series after how the Western Conference Finals ended a year ago, so they’ll make it interesting for awhile. It wouldn’t even surprise me if it was tied 2-2. But Denver is a tough draw over the course of a series and the Lakers lack of depth and shooting and rely too much on LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Timberwolves vs. Suns

Botkin: Timberwolves in 6. There’s a temptation to say the Wolves can’t score enough in this series, but they’re going to force the Suns into so many tough 2s that eventually the shots will stop going in at an efficient enough rate.

Herbert: Suns in 6. Minnesota is too good to dismiss and I am interested to see what Chris Finch has up his sleeve, but this has been a terrible matchup. Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be put in extremely uncomfortable situations defensively.

Maloney: Timberwolves in 7. I’ve gone back and forth on this series a few times. The Suns’ regular-season dominance in this matchup does feel meaningful, but I do not trust their defense or anyone on their bench, and it feels like they’ll have to be perfect on offense to win this series. They very well might be given their talent, but I’m going to play the percentages here and take the Wolves.

Quinn: Timberwolves in 7. This is by far the hardest series to pick. Phoenix is going to feast on Minnesota’s drop coverage. I have no idea how the Suns plan to defend Anthony Edwards. In the end, Minnesota’s depth and home-court advantage give it the slimmest of edges, but this one could go either way.

Ward-Henninger: Suns in 7. I’m probably falling into the same old trap when it comes to the Suns, but if any team is going to get past the league’s best defense, it’s one with two of the league’s best individual scorers. There’s also going to be a lot on Anthony Edwards’ shoulders, and Frank Vogel will design a defense to make other players beat them. I may regret it, but give me KD and Book.

Wimbish: Timberwolves in 7. I could honestly see the Suns winning this series, but I’m going to go with the team that has been more consistent this season. I’m picking this to go the distance because Phoenix lacks the depth, but the talent between Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal is just too much think they won’t go down without a fight.

Clippers vs. Mavericks

Botkin: Mavericks in 6. Even if Kawhi comes back you have to question if he can actually last a whole series. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are making sweet music and the Mavs are defending with 48 minutes of rim protection between Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford.

Herbert: Mavericks in 7. I’d pick the Clippers if Kawhi Leonard were entering the series healthy, despite the fact that Dallas ended the season a zillion times stronger. Without being sure that Leonard will be available and at his best, though, I have to lean Mavericks.

Maloney: Mavericks in 6. The Mavericks have been one of the best teams in the league for a while now and Luka Doncic always rises to the occasion. I probably would have picked them no matter what, but I’m even more confident given Kawhi Leonard’s knee injury.

Quinn: Mavericks in 6. Kawhi Leonard’s health doesn’t help matters, but the truth is that the Mavericks have just been a far better team since the All-Star break. Their current starting lineup is 15-1. James Harden is going to get hunted into extinction by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. I just can’t see the Clippers getting the stops they’ll need to win this series.

Ward-Henninger: Clippers in 7. This is obviously a bet that Kawhi Leonard will return somewhere close to 100% (if at all), and that the Clippers will get back to the team that was so dominant for a chunk of the season. Dallas has been as good as anyone in the league recently, but — as great as Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are — the Mavs may still be one guy short against a full-strength Clippers squad.

Wimbish: Mavericks in 6. Kawhi not being fully healthy is a red flag. Couple that with the fact that the Mavericks are entering the playoffs as perhaps the hottest team in the league after finishing the season so strong and I’m going with Luka Doncic to finally overcome the Clippers.