The 76ers will host the Heat in the play-in tournament with the seventh seed in the NBA‘s Eastern Conference playoffs on the line.
Philadelphia did its best to try and avoid the play-in game, ending the regular season on an eight-game winning streak.
Unfortunately for them, the 76ers wound up in a three-way tie with Orlando and Indiana, and in this scenario, the league uses the teams’ divisional records as a tiebreaker.
As a result, they’re in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game against a Miami Heat team that successfully navigated the tournament last season en route to an NBA Finals appearance.
Philadelphia opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and the spread is up to 5.5, even with Joel Embiid’s status somewhat uncertain after seemingly reinjuring his left knee last week against Orlando.
While Embiid did manage to finish the game, he was inactive for Philadelphia’s 107-86 victory over Brooklyn in the season finale.
Thus, if the 76ers are concerned enough to rule out Embiid in their last game, bettors should be somewhat cautious in laying the points here with the home team.
Heat vs. 76ers odds
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Heat | +5.5 (-115) | +180 | o208.5 (-110) |
76ers | -5.5 (-105) | -215 | u208.5 (-110) |
Heat analysis
Miami also has some injury concerns as guard Terry Rozier will miss a fifth consecutive game due to neck spasms. However, being without Rozier might not necessarily be the worst thing, as Miami is just 15-16 in games he plays vs. 31-20 without him.
The return of Tyler Herro from a foot and knee injury could be a game-changer for Miami. Despite only playing in 42 games, he still shared the team lead in scoring with Jimmy Butler, averaging 20.8 points per game. Nonetheless, Herro still shared the team lead in scoring with Jimmy Butler, averaging 20.8 points per game.
This is a very balanced team, with three players averaging 19 or more points. Defensively, it ranks fifth in efficiency, allowing 111.5 points per 100 possessions.
Miami is also likely to control the pace of the game. Per TeamRankings, it’s 29th in possessions (99.5), and that number only slightly increases to 99.6 on the road.
In a game that could potentially have fewer possessions, the importance of efficiency cannot be overstated. This factor could significantly influence the outcome of the game and is a crucial point for bettors to consider.
If we look at the Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) for both teams, which adjusts to account for three-point field goals worth more than two-pointers, Miami has a slight edge at 53.8% vs. 53.2% for Philadelphia.
76ers analysis
Embiid holds the keys for the 76ers in this matchup and anything they do beyond this game.
According to StatMuse, Philadelphia’s net rating in games Embiid plays is +10.5, but it falls to -3.7 without him. A net rating swing of 14 points shows just how vital Embiid is to the 76ers’ overall game plan.
It’s been a recurring theme that Embiid picks up some sort of injury either during or heading into the postseason. And given his injury history, he hasn’t always been able to play through the pain.
Some players are simply unlucky regarding injuries, and while Embiid is a great talent, he might need to improve his conditioning to be a more durable player.
When Embiid initially injured his knee in a loss against Golden State, the 76ers’ losing streak reached four games. They were on a 1-7 stretch heading into the trade deadline and acquired Buddy Hield from the Indiana Pacers.
Hield hasn’t exactly had the spark some might’ve expected, averaging 12.2 points with Philadelphia—barely higher than the 12 points he averaged with the Pacers.
And since Tyrese Maxey wasn’t enough to carry Philadelphia, any success for Philadelphia will likely come down to Embiid and whether his body can hold up.
Heat vs. 76ers pick
It feels as if there’s always a looming injury for Embiid around the corner, which makes it difficult to have any confidence backing the 76ers as a favorite in this spot.
Miami’s experience in last year’s play-in tournament could also play a role.
If we look at the total, it was bet down from 209 to as low as 207.5, and a lower-scoring game is more likely to benefit the Heat.
Betting on the NBA?
These teams were only separated by one game in the regular-season standings, and given their performances, a 5.5-point spread feels unwarranted.
According to our Action Labs database, No. 7 seeds in the play-in tournament are 0-4 against the spread when laying 5.5 or more points.
My model makes Philadelphia closer to a 3.5-point favorite, giving me enough of an edge to recommend a play on Miami at the current price.
Pick: Heat +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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